El Niño may bring the UAE a warmer, wetter winter, NCM says
The National Centre of Meteorology puts the chance of El Niño lasting through March 2027 at 96 per cent, with rain and temperatures possibly above the UAE average.
The El Niño climate pattern is likely to stay with us into early 2027, according to the latest outlook from the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM). It gives a 96 per cent chance that El Niño conditions continue through March 2027, and says rainfall and temperatures in the UAE could be above average over that time.
The event is expected to peak in October and November, and the NCM describes it as very strong. El Niño is a warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that shifts weather patterns far away; in the UAE it tends to add moisture to the air, which raises the chance of rain when local conditions allow it.
The NCM is clear that this does not mean floods are coming. It has rejected social media posts warning of severe flooding linked to El Niño and says heavy rain happens only when local weather systems line up.
For residents, it means a winter with more rainy days is likely. Follow the NCM's own forecasts and alerts on its website and app rather than forwarded messages, drive slowly when the roads are wet or foggy, and keep an eye on its yellow and orange warnings before planning a desert or wadi trip.